There are several serious problems plaguing the U.S. effort in Afghanistan. Problems that the United States has seen before in places like Viet Nam and Iraq. Problems that, if left unresolved,will lead to almost certain military failure:

1. There is no clearly defined goal.

Without a clearly defined goal, the combat strategy moves from an active one to a passive one. This is what happened in Viet Nam. It is what has happened in Iraq. All the military is interested in accomplishing under these conditions is not losing the ground it has gained.

This is not a strategy for winning a war.

Passive warfare is expensive, especially in human terms. It is a drain on the morale of the military. Worse still, it also causes a loss of focus at home. This loss of focus  forces the war to compete for public attention with the likes of health care reform, race-baiting politics, hurricanes, wildfires, the deaths of important persons, etc.

Ever perceptive to the slightest change in the focus of attention and mood of the populous, politicians begin to waver in their resolve to prosecute the war. This, in turn, becomes articulated in the press, and the cycle feeds itself until the war effort stalls and the enemy realizes all they have to do is wait the U.S. out.

2. The Generals are not really calling the shots.

The politicians are.

Politicians are not Generals. They are not educated in warfare. They have no clue about strategy or tactics, and they don’t listen to those who do.

This alone is enough to doom a war effort.

3. Failure to understand the enemy.

The government, the military, the press and the public insist on framing “the enemy” in American terms.

A classic and recent example is Iran. When demonstrations broke out in Iran over the recent election, the first thing American politicians started yelling was that the demonstrations meant the people of Iran want democracy.

They don’t.

Iranians, for the most part, are happy with their theocracy. What they want is an election that wasn’t rigged, which is not the same thing as wanting Western Democracy (which has had it’s own episodes of election irregularities throughout its history).

The United States likes to talk about winning hearts and minds, but it has no idea what’s in those hearts and minds to begin with.

Outside of calling the Taliban a bunch of thugs, the United States has demonstrated time and again it has little understanding of Afghanistan, the Taliban, and what makes people join and support the Taliban.

4. The United States is fighting the war with the wrong military.

The American military is still predicated on the belief that wars are fought with clearly defined front lines on reasonably accessible terrain and against an enemy which plays by the rules of war. American politicians propagate this myth by continuing to claim the American military is the greatest military on earth, without adding the caveat that this is only true under the right conditions. The American people have been indoctrinated to believe this myth, and to expect easy victory.

But, the American military has become an anachronism. Wars are no longer fought along fronts. Battles are fought with IEDs instead of tanks. There are no longer clearly defined battlefields. Under these conditions, the strength of the American military is a myth, because the American military is a military constructed for a mode of warfare that is not suited for this particular battlefield environment.

True, the advent of drones and other technologies have helped level the playing field. But, the military needs to develop a comprehensive anti-guerilla functionality. Until it does, it will continue to suffer nickle-and-dime losses in men and material which add up to huge losses and ultimate defeat over time.

Afghanistan is at a crossroads. The U.S. has to either re-think its strategy, or get out while it still can.

Given the circumstances, the latter might be the only way to truly win.

© 2009, Mac Williams. All rights reserved.

• A Parable of Afghanistan